Difficult to say which one alone would have a bigger impact on the market (I think you mean nameplate production rather than continuous?), but whichever one comes second will have the bigger impact because the two of them combined (demonstrating that we are capable of doing it combined with being allowed by the government to do it) will be much bigger than either of them alone. Nameplate production won't just come as a sudden announcement, we'll gradually be increasing and making our way to it. The permit on the other hand will be a sudden 'we have it' announcement which will make it more impactful.
My hope and also expectation (as I've been saying for the best part of two years now) is that we'll be producing before we get the permit. Early last year probably none of us genuinely expected getting to production would take this long, but given that it has I'm not surprised we don't yet have the permit, and expect we'll have it fairly soon. Could be any time, probably early next year is my guess.
The resource upgrade was always going to be the smallest of the 'big' news we're expecting, partly because we were all very confident about getting it. Today's provided data confirms what we were all confident about, I really enjoyed looking through the chemistry data provided and was surprised they provided so much detail. I can't come up with a meaningful estimate but it's very clear from the data and from what they've said in the announcement that what's down there at the depths drilled to (and likely much lower) is good and the upgrade will be in line with optimistic hopes. The actual announcement on this one is just a formality now.
JZ is pretty useless, I honestly don't like the guy at all, but I think he has finally learned over the last six months that making promises he can't keep actually causes problems, so I'm actually thinking this time we'll get the upgrade this year. Once the lab work is done the modelling work can't take long (JZ won't be the one doing it!).
This resource size is great for us. We probably have over 100 years worth of product in the ground at 12,000TPA, so obviously we are not limited to 12 or 25kTPA due to resource size.
It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts between now and our next announcement, which will probably be a production update. My only concern about today's announcement is that it wasn't really necessary to announce anything right now and JZ has timed it right before the market will be hoping for a production update, so perhaps his plan was to throw a bone to distract from the lack of any noteworthy production developments. If we get another period of radio silence on production, the market probably won't respond favourably. Then again, if production has increased this month, which is likely, we might actually see our first positive share price movement since May! I'll try not to stare too hard at the tea leaves over the next few days.
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