My A$500 million CAPEX estimate is derived from a figure in a research report by Canaccord from October 2022, as referenced on AGY's website (US$284m - refer to the screenshot below). I've increased CG's CAPEX estimate by 15% to account for its age, considering that it's over 18 months old. Note that they are estimating 45% equity financing (re: dilution).
I think keeping the increase to 15% is generous to AGY. It's worth noting that Arcadium's Sal De Vida CAPEX budget increased by 38% from April 2022 to September 2023, a similar timeframe, attributed to inflationary conditions, which would likely affect AGY similarly (refer to details below).
US$284m x 1.15 = US$326.6m or A$500m based on today's FOREX rate.
P.S - It's nice that you want to stick to what's been communicated; it's just a shame that JZ doesn't.
AGY Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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