Completely agree and always happy to have a honest conversation around points that get brought up. Certainly not a perma bull.
Here are my comments to your points
1.) Completely agree and to be completely honest, the approvals have come at the right time for AGY. Had they come a year ago, after commissioning had started, it would have caused a real issue since they have had issues scaling. As far as I can tell this is finally being addressed. No doubt this will be a large part of requirements for offtake partners.
2 and 3.) I think this is based on the assumption that it ONLY got 15% opposed to OFFERED 15%. As you correctly pointed out in point 3, Li pricing right now is arguably the worst time to be making deals. So the reality is companies may only offered a lower % to ensure minimal dilution or at least to way a year until pricing begins to increase further. If I were a business man, I certainly wouldn't be looking in large portions of product at these low prices.
Again just how I interpret the sale of 15% but potentially Ganfeng only wanted 15%
Right now, the offtake really only needs to be for enough to pay for the beginning of phase 2 without dilution and then as Li pricing increases more partners can be brought on or a larger stake can be sold. Most of the payments for phase 2 would not be prepayments so that allows time to strike the right deals at better times.
AGY Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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