My view on the current status:
- the entire Li market was a bit down for few months (from mid January 2018)
- EOFY sale is also adding to this
- It is just one of the small wave/cycle of the market and we'll see it again back up
- There is no reason to loose faith now, we are in a much better position
I've re-visited my calculations on GoogleSheets: AGY Litio Calculations
and it looks great.
I tried on the "calculations sand pit" what would be the projected SP taking into consideration only the stage 2 and it came out like this:
- Low end case scenario (I don't want to say worst case) - 52c/share
this is based on 2000t/a, IG 12000$/t, production cost 6000$/t, P/E ratio 40 (current P/E for SQM is 30)
- High end case scenario (BG with low cost) - 1.05$/share
And this is just S2, not considering the S3 coming soon
Happy
