@PoohbearG'day Pooh, I don't need to tell you how off the mark...

@Poohbear

G'day Pooh,

I don't need to tell you how off the mark some of JZ's guidance has been. You're welcome to your optimistic interpretation, but I'll continue to view this guidance with scepticism until some tangible results are achieved. Do you recall how many "final hydrogeological submissions" there were?

It pays to remember that we've already seen "semi-continuous operations", and we know how that went. Viewing the guidance with a critical eye, the bold parts stand out to me:

‘The recent works represent the final parts of the critical path process to achieving continuous operations, leading into increasing production over coming months.’

"Increasing production" could mean anything, including as little as 4 tonnes per week. And "coming months" could mean any period of time. How many months; 3, 6, 12, or 24?

Honestly, I'm surprised that some holders are so confident given how much wriggle room remains in these announcements. I can understand JZ not providing firm timelines anymore after missing targets in the past, so he's just being prudent in keeping things vague but optimistic.

In the mean time, the 2 ktpa operation is cash flow negative and cash holdings are likely down to about A$8m. It needs to produce at 80% of nameplate just to keep up with current cash burn. I can't see that turning around quickly, therefore I expect that you'll see at least a portion of the CR allocated to improving the 2 ktpa plant.

Personally, I think it's foolhardy to assume that things are improving until the company actually provides some tangible evidence of progress.