Just some thoughts. You can (very roughly) decompose the share...

Just some thoughts.

You can (very roughly) decompose the share price behaviour based on some peer comparison.
If you average over the sector, it's about 70% down from its peak currently. Some more (like LKE), some less (like PLS). Going off this peer comparison implies a drop from the AGY peak of 80c to about 24c is sector-related (largely due to a collapse of lithium prices). Maybe 30c since the distribution has less pain for established producers which AGY currently is not.

The 24c (or 30c) down to 12.5c (today's SP), I'd attribute largely to company-level events (mostly the troublesome production ramp). It could have been a bit worse if it were not for the resource expansion and permits.

So even if AGY reached nameplate, the sector as a whole is near its bottom, so is unlikely to see new highs until prices improve. The best (pure play lithium) performer I'm tracking right now is PLS and they are 28% down. The other big guns like SQM, LTM, ALB are 58%, 61% and 62% down from peak (AGY is 84%). Lithium has gone through at least 3 boom and bust cycles like this and if you believe in the cyclical nature of the sector, the pessimistic bottoms are where you should be investing (and this doesn't just apply to AGY if that's not your cup of tea investment wise).

I should mention there are some arguments about the ability of the Chinese to bring online large amounts of high-cost lithium at short notice that might constrain the lithium price upside but I've also seen arguments suggesting that there is a limit to how much ever increasing demand that can cover in the future.