Ann: Rincon Lithium Project Update, page-207

Dude, $73M is not a good price for almost no money (a bit of lithium in the shed which your own cheerleader says is difficult to sell, and even I will agree is difficult to sell when there's no chance of follow up supply!) and a lot of liability.

They've proven they don't know how to produce. They've admitted (by default) that they were never able to produce, they don't know what they're doing.

The price of lithium could go back up to its previous highs (it won't) and AGY would still be worth nothing. Two failed plants and the ambition to raise enough money to build another one??? There is no way at all they could possibly build a 10,000TPA plant in time to make it worth investing now, and it's extremely unlikely they'll build one.

Let's run a back of the envelope analysis.

Lithium price doesn't rally for two years. AGY either sits around bleeding slowly for two years then raises capital at 1.5c in 2026, finishes it in 2028 (the lithium price has already crashed) and can't produce. Share price is at 0.5c. Honestly, this is optimistic.

Let's say they raise capital now at 3c (extremely unlikely they could, but let's go with miracle scenario where they do). They get the plant built by around mid 2026 and the lithium price rallies at exactly the right time. They miraculously get it working by late 2026 in time to catch the end of the rally, and then the price goes back down. Okay, maybe, maybe if you have three miracles, AGY may briefly be worth more than it is now (noting that none of those miracles is likely, let alone all three, which is astronomically unlikely). In that scenario you'd be better off waiting for the 3c capital raising. Though, again, to raise at 3c in the near future is the most spectacularly optimistic scenario I can possibly imagine, and even in that scenario the price would almost certainly drop to 1-2c during the two years they're constructing the plant, which almost certainly wouldn't work anyway.

Realistically, AGY today confirmed it is dead, or at least, it's in hospital, on its death bed with terminal cancer and kidney failure and a severe stroke at the age of 93 years.

Without even trying to look at what's most likely, what possible scenario can you deliberately concoct as a hypothetical which would make it worth holding at this time? Without even trying to weigh up a risk:reward analysis, it's not even realistic to think of a good scenario which is plausible, other than some black swan event destroying a large percentage of global lithium supply and skyrocketing the price, which might give AGY a sucker rally before it ends up collapsing anyway.

$73M is a very high price for a liability.