Spot on. I don't think many here fully grasp the extent of the risk this company now faces. When people believed a funding deal for Stage 3 was imminent, there was still a four-year development timeline, meaning no 12 ktpa production until 2028/29. Now, the 2 ktpa operation (Stage 2) has been put on hold until prices improve significantly, which many respected analysts don't expect to happen until about 2028, or in some cases even later than that.
If AGY/Puna has to wait four years to just to restart and try again with the 2 ktpa operation in 2028 (which may or may not be successful based on their previous efforts), it's likely that Stage 2 won't hit nameplate until 2030 or later. IMO, it will therefore take at least a decade (or more) before the 10 ktpa expansion is funded and constructed, let alone producing anything.
In the meantime, there will be no revenue for the next four years, except for the sale of the remaining 80 tonnes of carbonate in storage. At current prices, it's worth about A$1.5m, which would only sustain Pablo, friends and family for a week or two based on recent spending. Don't forget there's still a Xmas party to pay for, and also multiple feel-good community events to keep Salta citizens happy. This leaves the company with just $12m to survive for the next four years, which even the most optimistic investors would admit is completely unrealistic. IMO, multiple capital raises are inevitable and will probably occur sooner than expected.
I'm amazed that people actually believe there is progress on the 10 ktpa engineering front, just because AGY says that this is now their priority. For those with short memories, AGY has been working on the 10 ktpa pre-development and engineering works for over a year already. Here's an excerpt from the July 2023 quarterly report, which looks very similar to what AGY claims they are now focusing on. The only difference is the extra word salad provided in the latest release, but it's clearly still just a continuation of pre-development engineering works that have already been going for over a year now.
Anyway, it will be interesting to watch how long JZ will try and stretch out the 10 ktpa engineering, noting he's already been at it for a year. With no details of the proposed cost saving measures, I'm also very keen to see the next quarterly report to see what their "capital preservation" actually looks like.
It's truly unbelievably that people keep falling for this carrot-dangling.
July 2023:
July 2024:
