LTM 2.07% $8.05 arcadium lithium plc

Reading through some pretty good posts. Thx All. However, while...

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  1. 24 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 9
    Reading through some pretty good posts. Thx All.
    However, while PG, the CEO, gets a lot of air time, I haven't see Peter Coleman's name surface?
    As the Chair, PG reports to him and while PG is worrying about his role/ego/legacy in the new organization, Coleman will ultimately sign off with, and on behalf, of the board.
    Coleman is sharp, seasoned and I don't think there would be the hubris that you would see from Graves.
    Coleman has operated assets for XOM right though to Woodside's Karratha.
    He will be formidable across the table from Rio and their Bankers.
    He has strong links with BHP from JV's and the Petroleum deal and I think if there was another realistic bidder we would know.
    Also Rio's bid has already placed the premium on LTM in a sector where there are other distressed Lithium players.
    In terms of being a catalyst for this deal, it would not surprise me that it was the product of Peter Coleman

    1. I suspect Rio is it .in terms if realistic bidders right now
    2. Rio will have a 2nd offer to make it more attractive but not to fend off another rival. The BHP and Anglo walk away was very interesting - BHP was rewarded for CAPITAL Stewardship and now Anglo is rushing around to show they can delver better value and as a result being very reactive.
    3. Shorts will surface in NY tonight and may bump the USD$ price up a little
    4. But Coleman will play a straight bat and I feel, as an earlier post put it, AUD$7.00 is where he'll have to put his cards on the table. Coleman knows from his Woodside days that when the Acquirer pulls their offer away unless there is a "pull out penalty fee", we could see pre offer prices or lower.
    5. There appears to be no reference to a penalty, break-up fee and not sure there is even a data room as yet. This will come out in the next few weeks
    6. So mid week we should expect, confirmation of non-binding offer, exclusive discussions, access to Data Room and potential withdrawal penalty structure
    7. Given the NYSE Premium and our ASX 45%, $7 to $8 would appear to be where the dance may end.
    8. I suspect to share the risk and reward it'll involve script

    Just thoughts and IMO.
    Disclosure - I have the stock at mid AUD$5's but will hold because of the Coleman factor
 
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$8.05
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