Personally I think a deal near $8 bil U.S is no chance....

Personally I think a deal near $8 bil U.S is no chance. Replacement values are usually used to justify a purchase price which is still at a discount to that value. Rio can justify bidding up to 6 bil citing that replacement value. There is no chance in my view it ends up being 8 bil.

The lithium market is what it is. Arcadium need Rio more than Rio need them. Given anyone can go an average down and buy shares today at a $4bil valuation I think resistance to the deal between 5 to 6 bil U.S will be futile.

My guess is a deal gets done near 6bil U.S.