"I have read in another LTM thread that there is already a US law firm looking into whether this is a fair and reasonable transaction. Do you know about this?"
No, I did not nearly read every article / news piece related to this merger. Law firm(s) looking into this does not surprise me at all. I want to know from the management who the insider(s) is / were who talked to Reuters about the acquisition talks and told Reuters that a valuation could be in the range of between 4 and 6 billion USD: Shortly afterwards both company acknowledged the talks. And shortly after that Rio gave us a "generous offer" of 6.7 billion USD just 700 million USD above the low ball valuation range that the "insider" told Reuters about. All happened within a few days. Curious isn't it!? I think we deserve to know from the Arcadium Lithium management what happened and what they think about "insider" talking to the media when these talks were supposed to be confidential. Why did it all happen within this very short period of time? Does the management take consequences because of this insider talking to the media. I think that we as owners of the company deserve answers.
I wrote and e-mail to Blackwattle Investment Partners and shared my thoughts and information with them and allowed them to use and share what I sent them. I encouraged them to take a look at my information and be vocal about their opinion going forward. But I also said that my opinion is that we should not agree to a takeover at all right now. It is just not the right time for us to maximize our return. I do not think that our share price would massively tank if the takeover does not move forward, let's say next year. Rio TInto's offer has sent a strong signal to the stock market to re-evaluate every company in the sector and that signal remains even should the shareholders not agree to the offer. The transaction is supposed to close in "mid-2025". Rio Tinto have comitted to a lengthy process that will not be over soon even if shareholders should agree during a vote closer to the "mid-2025" closing date. (Allkem / Livent merger closed not long after the vote, so a vote is probably still some time away, probably next year)
"With that in mind does that mean the current offer from Rio is a ceiling for the share price? Say that over the next year there is an improvement in the Lithium price which could be substantial: would our share price reflect this?"
From what I have read, right now the market is valueing Arcadium Lithium like a fixed income investment with a certain coupon from now until the transaction is supposed to be closed in mid-2025. So basically like a "safe" bond where you collect interest just for holding and the share price would slowly move up until the transaction price is reached in mid-2025. Should there be new information like a new (higher) offer from Rio Tinto or someone else then share price could immediately change to another price level. I do not think that Rio Tinto would suddenly withdraw their offfer, because now they have signaled that they are committed until at least mid-2025. Between now and a possible voting date lithium prices can change and it could influence Rio's offer or potential offers from somebody else. It could also influence the opinion of current shareholders on how to vote and could affect the outcome of a vote.
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