Worst-case scenario is some fatal flaw or the economics get upended that cause the project to stall or fail (unlikely). Alternatively, the project proceeds successfully to DFS, full permitting and FID... then at some time RIO is highly likely to want a bigger slice of the pie than 20% through oppies and future CR's.
This deal seems to kill any competitive tension or future bidding war with RIO already sitting on 15% plus first right refusal (why would anyone now bother with the expense and effort to make a TO?). We can all see RIO will seek control via M&A or JV deal down the track, but that timing is years away and entirely at RIO's whim now.
The DFS will now need to be of 'RIO standards' with their literal board and project involvement... typically onerously detailed, pilot plant tested, ESG to the wazoo, and eye-wateringly expensive. No problem for RIO, but doesn;t suit a cum-funding junior very well staring down the barrel of a RIO FID invoice. Does RIO move early and put SVM shareholders out of their misery in a few years, or play the happy for SVM to fund initially or JV games... what price/value will RIO hang SVM out on the funding deal?
This is a very interesting take on the Lassonde Curve, where a final funding partner is locked in, yet the final funding metrics, timing or TO is unknown. Who wants to wait around for events to come to a head, what sort of discount to eventual M&A will the market be happy to wait at? How much does M&A value depend on the graphite market in 3 years time, and market forecasts from 3 years time when long-term price assumptions are critical for project NPV?
All very interesting indeed, I don;t know the answers or where share price will settle for the journey. Strategically and tactically, I can't imagine RIO wants to pay any more than they have to, or move M&A any earlier than they have to. SVM look like a bird in a gilded cage right now... well fed and protected by RIO's riches, but only released from that cage at a time and condition of RIO's choosing...
GLTAH
SVM Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)