Ann: RIU Conference Presentation, page-77

Impossible to make short term predictions in my view with short term swings in commodity prices, overall market movements (currently weak), and a quite possible short sharp US and Euro recession later this year (and if RBA keeps jacking up rates potentially here also with our massive household debt bubble about to start moving from 2-2.5% fixed to circa 6% progressively from mid year. As a consumption based economy of around 65% of GDP (and disproportionately 20-50 year olds spending) who are also the ones saddled with most debt things turn ugly over the next year or so.

Back to NWC:

- copper appears the can’t miss commodity when it comes to electrification
- I haven’t seen any analysis saying we aren’t in massive structural deficit over the next decade due to mine depletions not being matched by ramped up demand, esp with the slow mining approvals/construction (used to 5-7 years, now often 10-12 for big deposit from what I understand). 43% of worlds copper from Chile and a Peru both with left leaning Govts which is scaring miners there (probably not “nationalising” mines but increased red tape and higher royalties likely)
- further to above more and more Analysts are predicting higher copper prices going forward. No one predicting a lower long term copper price. G/Sachs at 16,000 USD / T but NWC assumptions likely to be very conservative
- proven Mgt team being complimented with new value adding hires. CEO excellent, knows his stuff and is not the “sales man” type. Board also strong if understanding its composition inc Richard Hill, Chairman (was involved with STA ramp up to production and hiring their gun CEO. The other recent hire more a corporate t/over specialist to offer NWC this flexibility as no doubt interest from mid tiers will arise over coming years.
- already a viable mine based on current resource. Antler likely to end up 15-20MT @4CU. Find another 1 or 2 Antlers and target prices move up 2-3x.
- either way with the published 12 month TP’S from well regarded Analysts like Paul Howard very difficult to see how this isn’t materially higher in a years time, assuming no major set backs (Arizona back flips on permitting etc - all very unlikely).
- whether we are 7/12/15 cents - or whatever - in a years time this looks cheap fundamentally with so much derisking already having occurred. Now for the upside…