Thanks to @subi on the other thread to the latest Bell Potter interview (link below) which added a lot to the above - well worth a listen and to the Q&A at the end.
Some notable snippets;
4:05min - it seems the two white papers to US DoD in regard to Dubbo are for potential grants for construction - so (IMO) in addition to the non-binding debt funding commitments from ECA's
5:00min - ASM being part of the DBIC (Defense Base Industrial Consortium) will aid in securing offtakes for the defence sector
5:30min - the significant amount of onshore support/tax credits and state incentives in US means a second US metals plant would be 'very competitive'
6:15min - locally the implementation of the Federal Production Tax Credit along with a 5 year State moratorium on royalties should improve Dubbo economics
7:20min - funding tightly linked to offtake agreements (apparently need offtakes for 80% of production over first 7 years or so)
11:20min - tThe staged approach at Dubbo likely to reduce initial Capex to 'significantly less' than $1B (for Stage 1 covering REE's only) - as opposed to the likely $2B of the original full build (that includes Hafnia/Zirconia/Niobium) - this means already have the 60% debt component covered by ECA's, which total $1.4B, well above the say $600M needed for Stage 1
12:40min - KMP was built too early cf ramp-up of the downstream magnet manufacturers - but these are now coming online and making orders - full production will not happen until 2026
14:10min - looking to move to commercial production of the HREE (Dysprosium and Terbium) later in 2025
21:00 - looking at ASM needing some $300-400M in equity for Stage 1 - ASM want/expect their REE offtaker/s to take part in the project funding as well as buying product - easier for the HREE offtakes which are harder to source than the LREE's
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(20min delay)