Pretty sure that ASM in retrospect would acknowledge they went too hard too early on KMP, but IMO they had 'reasonable grounds' at that time to do so as the Koreans were saying all the right things about supporting a non-China supply chain and ASM and Korean had had a long preceding relationship. But the Koreans never really put hard cash behind their rhetoric and ASM had to pivot to finding support from other jurisdictions - with the US now looking pretty solid as the likely core customer - with EXIM grants for Dubbo, US DoD grants for perhaps two replicated KMP's in the US and I would suggest a US based offtake equity partner suggested by @subi as EXIM/DoD will 'insist' on that.
I too would love to see more formal guidance from ASM as to orders/revenue growth for KMP but, as you point out, there is danger in making unsubstantiated statements. Hence Rowena is holding these video interviews and dropping hints as best she can. Your call on whether you believe them!
As for Rowena's role in approving KMP, not sure she can be held at all responsible for that decision, having joined ASM mid 2021 and KMP was commissioned early 2022. Pretty sure FID for KMP would have happened ahead of her arrival!
ASM Price at posting:
45.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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