Hi guys! Did anyone noticed the remarkable exodus of our Institutional investors over the past 4-5 month? From the ~17% down to about ~6% probably those funds been the greatest sellers after the spin off? As an ~11% drop in their holding spread out to 4.7 month would provide an average 80-90 000 share trade volume daily?
Meanwhile i havent posted here for a while just been reading the comments as i believe Ardea's days coming further out, so after i commented a few times my views i found it unnecessary to keep putting comments every session.
Maybe some of you guys still remember my statement in around mid year 2019 about try to guess the possibility of getting a deal last year and offered a bet of up to 100 USD on the side that there will be no Finance commiting JV will be formed in 2019 as the chances i assumed to low for that to happend.
Now i will take my chances and try to assume what are the odds that this year a finance commiting JV will form, and as of 2020 Febr i assume the chances to be 30% or less that this year a finance commiting JV will be formed for our Main Nickel-Cobalt project.
A good part of the factors are: I dont assume that Nickel prices will get for a sustainable period of time(3-6 month) above our key 8-9USD/lb level this year, in a good part bec. of the current slow down in China which obviously will be passed, but hard to believe after a ~month of largely missed consumption it wont put a dent on the annual demand of everything. Worth to note that most provinces in China starting to work this week, but a lot of part of the economy wont fare that well for months to come, as people and businesses will be more watching their spending and also many people will be encouraged to save up more for future currently unseeable events after they realized in the past one month that they cant comfortably withstand a month of missed work/or business. These econony slowing factors will have a dent on Annual stainless Steel production growth (perhaps it will be more like a flat to slight begative year?! We will see), because of these assumptions i believe this year the Indonesian ore export bann wont have the previously expected booming effect on the Nickel prices.
As i offered last year i am willing to bet with anyone until upto 100USD that this year wont have a finance commiting JV deal as i am convinced in my thesis. The offered odds by me is risking 1 part to win 2 so anyone who is willing to bet risking Up to 50 USD to win my 100USD. We can also costumize the bet to be 20 for 40 or 25 for 50 or whatever wished.
Of course everyone is trusted by their own words here that after the year lapsed sending out the proceeds.
I accept bets within the next 2 month.
(Ps: I hope i loose!;D)
Additionally i do believe Ardea have a good future long term,but i do needed to realize over the years that many of us were probably about 4-5 year early into the EV Nickel-Cobalt story, of course Early is a lot better than late!;D
I maintain my view that our strategic partner deal will not be driven by the Nickel price, it is driven by growth ambitions of EV companies
(20min delay)