NOV 2.00% 4.9¢ novatti group limited

TA for the uninitiated is basically price and volume analysis...

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    TA for the uninitiated is basically price and volume analysis and the trend (direction) that those are headed, and estimates of the rate of change. Its a snapshot of market opinion over the selected time frame - price needs to be confirmed with volume, but low liquidity stocks can fool people. Whatever your fundamental analysis, if the market votes otherwise, then your on average likely to be wrong.
    Thats why many experienced traders use 'stop loss' - generally if a stock is falling for no reason, there is a reason, but you're just not aware of it. A tight stop loss may take one out early in some trades but better a small loss, than getting bogged down in a ridiculous HC debate about inherent value that's going to eventuate eventually .... oh boy.
    Everyone should try and combine TA and fundamentals. The sophisticated end of the market does, the algo's do, and it ain't that hard once you learn a few basics.

    I was seduced by an analysts report ( SP target 100c no less ) and a broker recommendation. Subsequently, analyst updates keep reiterating the 100c target ... now 75c ... now lots of excuses and a recommendation for patience and "trust the management" etc.
    A stop loss at 20% below purchase would have stemmed the bleeding before the liquidity dried up and the residual 80% would have recovered to well north of initial NOV investment.
    An inherent weakness in all investors to some degree, is a loyalty to our choices which then get reinforced by some factors as "confirmation bias" - we seek information and opinions that reinforce our position instead of those that challenge it.
    I'm still a SH because May-June is not the best of time to sell unless you need the tax break and you have a better investment in mind that seems to be "on special". I'm not ruling out puling the NOV plug before June 30.
    PS why the hell is Hecticpharmer given a licence to wax lyrical when he's not a SH ?? Has he a relative in the business ??
 
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