Hi 1357.al.toh,
lol, you have just about answered your own question...as per the graphic, Donald needs secure offtakes (particularly for the REEC, ATR China will take 30% of the HMC), final approvals & FID to progress.
Missing from that graphic though is financing of the phase 1 CAPEX of A$365m + OPEX funding (maybe A$400m?) support until the project finally goes cashflow + in year 4. This may prove to be the challenging part given the Donald DFS financial metricises are based on the what are increasingly looking to be heroic Adamas forecasts for the Donald REEC product base case pricing of US$14,094/t (ex.13% PRC VAT) in 2025 when the first shipment of Donald product is forecast. Given
60%TREO monazite conc. is currently being quoted on giti.sg at US$6600/t ex. works PRC inc.13% VAT (US$5,742 ex.VAT), we will need an increase of about 250% in monazite conc. pricing by 2025 to meet forecasts!
Our PRC friends have certainly managed to take the punchbowl away from our western RE wannabes...I seriously doubt if any aussie RE projects would still be in the money at current REO pricing, and our one producing champion must also be feeling the pinch at this juncture; - it will be interesting to read their upcoming forecasts as to where NdPr will be heading in the near term.
On the positive side if you are going to be punting on an aussie RE developer IMHO you could chose a lot worse than ATR, and that's factoring in the tight share register and their at times idiosyncratic shareholder relations and communications tactics...GLTAH!
