Thx, With Vittangi at full capacity, Talga would be able to supply around 20 GWH of cell production. I assume here that a battery contains about about 1 kg per kWH, or 1t per GWH anode. I assume that the cells contain 100% Talnode-C and no synthetic. First to be conservative and second because I dont know if you can blend Talnode-C. It consists of graphite flake meta particles which are also coated. I think if you want to blend it, you need to mix the anode before particle forming and before coating. I might be wrong on this, needs an expert in the feeld to determine.
Anyhow, with the assumption out of the way, we can see that Talga could support 1 or 2 of your list of manufacturers. Both Envision, or one of the Northvolt factories, plus some smaller customers. However, the list you provide is by no means complete. Look here:
https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Battery%20brief%20%20%281%29.pdfBattery Production: "Up to 460 GWH in 2025". Thats about 20 times Vittangi. One year later, but still. And 4 to 5 times Vittangi+Niska. Thats why I am so bullish on Talga. All these factories need anode, green anode. Talga is clever to market its product as "green" because of the carbon footprint declaration. Its clever.
With the DFS released, it might take a few more weeks, but we could in principle see an off-take any day. Especially from one of the large manufacturers, preferably Northvolt because they have the Swedish government on the hook with their plant. With the timeline you post, the delay in the DFS might indicate an alignment with the Northvolt (or any other) factory. And Northvolt would profit greatly as it would get access to a cheaper and quite high performance anode which is as green as it gets. Also, the capacity of the plant is 32 GWH, which would require the entire Vittangi production and then some.
The more I think about it, the more your line of thinking makes sense
@cat dog. The additional mashinery for the anode processing and the time delay hidden in the gantt chart.. This has the fingerprints of a large customer wanting changes to the product. The timeline is indicating an alignment with when the product is needed. I have the feeling the DFS was tailored to that customer. The customer will have to do its DD on the DFS and get the thumbs up from their finance department. But when it does, and the signature is on the paper, we will know.
I would not sell Talga now. Especially not now. The share price seems to indicate confusion and frustration, and I am one of the persons who is quite frustrated because we dont KNOW whats going on. But the more I think about it, the more it becomes likely that the pot is already boiling in the background. Great investors are born in rough waters. I will read the DFS again, there is bound to be wording that I missed the first pass.
(20min delay)