For those who are interested:
17 March 2016 Press Release
This was the comment from CVN regarding ROC 2 prospect - "The Operator is currently advancing a suite of technical projects that are expected to be completed over the course of the 2016 calendar year. This work will assist in future drilling activities including the Roc-2 appraisal well. Planning for this well is in progress and at this time drilling is expected to commence early in the second half of calendar 2016 and will include full conventional coring of the reservoir followed by flow testing. The Roc-2 well location is expected to be some 5 to 6 kilometres to the east of the Roc-1 well as illustrated in Figure 2.
The well has an estimated 80% chance of geological success with the extent to which the Caley sandstone reservoir is present being the primary risk. The reason for this assessment being that seismic data quality and resolution precludes geophysical mapping each of the individual hydrocarbon bearing sands at this interval."
On 9 September 2016.
"The Roc-2 well has confirmed hydrocarbon bearing reservoir, in good quality rock, within the Caley section."
On 13 September 2016, Adrian said:
"I was asked how I was feeling about the Roc-2 well after we announced last Friday that we’d confirmed the presence of hydrocarbons in good quality reservoir in the zone where expected"
So Primary Risk has been resolved - Hydrocarbons do migrate from ROC1 to ROC2.
View attachment 257885
Which to me (and its only my opinion), means we have met our minimum economic threshold for gas and condensate.
Why?
Here are my reasons:
We know from basic science that there
Has to be enough "Pressure" within the those 80 Metres (ie. those below the first 40 metres) to hold the water table from rising.
Its either gas and condensate or the lower Caley sandstone itself being impermeable.
Well, we know from ROC1, the porosity and permeability below the water table (ie. below 40 metres gross) was of good quality sands.
Refer to their statement on 17 March 2016.
"On 4 January 2016, Carnarvon announced that the
Roc-1 well had discovered condensate-rich gas. The discovery was made in approximately 100 metres of water approximately 158 kilometres from Port Hedland. A gross hydrocarbon section of 40 metres was intersected between 4,384 metres and 4,424 metres providing a net pay of approximately 13 metres.
Beneath the hydrocarbon bearing sands an additional 80 m of reservoir quality sands were encountered." At ROC1, these 80 m sands was below the water table (refer to diagram above)
But note at ROC 2 (refer to diagram above), this sand is above the water table.
So that means (by the process of elimination), its gas and condensate that is providing the "Pressure" to stop the "Water" from rising.
Which means we should have another 80 metres gross pay of gas and condensate at ROC2, because now we have proven that hydrocarbons do migrate from ROC1 to ROC2 (Refer to primary risk outlined above).
Thus allowing us to achieve our minimum economic quantity.
So we would only need to work out the Net Pay, porosity and permeability to establish commercial flow rates. If the sand is consistent at ROC2 to ROC1, then we should have no problem.
Note, the above are all in my opinion. You should do your own research before deciding to invest.
In any case, I welcome comments and feedback.
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