Ann: Ryoncil Pricing Set and Available This Quarter, page-341

Here is what the unbiased Grok has to say based on data to 27th February from all sources on MSB's sales the next few years. Note their price quote is the low prior figures so adjust accordingly. Note that Grok will probably have those up-to-date figures tomorrow! The power of AI!

Predicting Mesoblast's exact sales totals for the next few years involves some uncertainty, as it depends on factors like regulatory approvals, market uptake, and the success of their product pipeline. However, I can provide an informed perspective based on available analyst forecasts and recent company developments as of February 27, 2025.

Mesoblast, a regenerative medicine company focused on allogeneic cellular therapies, has a key product, Ryoncil (remestemcel-L), which received FDA approval in December 2024 for pediatric steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGVHD). This marks their first commercial product in the U.S., with a targeted launch underway. They’re also advancing other candidates like rexlemestrocel-L for chronic low back pain and Revascor for heart failure, though these are still in clinical stages.

For 2025, Mesoblast’s revenue is tied heavily to Ryoncil’s rollout. Analysts have projected revenues ranging from approximately $6.7 million to $15.6 million USD, with an average around $11.2 million. This reflects initial sales from the pediatric SR-aGVHD market, estimated at about 1,000 to 2,000 U.S. patients annually, with pricing yet to be fully disclosed but likely in the range of high-cost specialty drugs (potentially $200,000–$400,000 per treatment based on similar therapies). Royalties from TEMCELL sales in Japan (for a related indication) add a smaller, steady stream—around $3–5 million annually in recent years, adjusted for exchange rates.

Looking to 2026, forecasts suggest a significant jump, with average revenue estimates around $72 million, ranging from $71.5 million to $73.3 million. This assumes Ryoncil gains traction in the U.S., possibly expanding to adults (pending further trials), and increased manufacturing scale. The adult SR-aGVHD market could be 3–5 times larger, potentially pushing sales higher if approved.

By 2027, projections climb sharply to around $327 million, with little variation in estimates, indicating analyst confidence in broader adoption or additional approvals. This could reflect Ryoncil’s label extension, contributions from rexlemestrocel-L (if its Phase 3 trial succeeds and it’s approved), or Revascor progress. The degenerative disc disease market alone, targeted by rexlemestrocel-L, affects millions, though penetration would start modestly.

These figures hinge on execution—Mesoblast’s history of regulatory delays and cash constraints (recently bolstered to $77.6 million) adds risk. Sales could underperform if adoption lags or competition emerges, or exceed expectations if additional indications or markets (e.g., Europe) open up. Summing the midpoints, you’re looking at roughly $11 million in 2025, $72 million in 2026, and $327 million in 2027—totaling about $410 million over three years, though this could shift significantly based on real-world outcomes.