Hi @OrdFinancial you have mentioned a few times your desire the...

Hi @OrdFinancial you have mentioned a few times your desire the SP to higher levels, with disappointment about retracements and then subsequent questions to the likes of @FlashPoint for an opinion on where the SP will head.

Your two points noted below demonstrates a level of equivocation on your part. BTW, I'm not having a go at you at all.

1; The share issue could have been done after the ASX200 inclusion; this would have made the institutions buy LTR at $1.92 pushing SP up breaking the "damn $2.00 resistance" because of the volume
But
2; Now the SP is below the share issue price , Institutions get a Christmas present to buy much cheaper which is good for increasing SP eventually ... But if I had the choice for a Bull trend trader making money and reinvestment back into LTR "vs" Institutions , I would not care about the Institutions much...

The point that I want to make is that (from my watching the BoD and their announcements over the past 2 years that I have been invested) the BoD have been very strategic in most (if not all) of their significant announcements. This cap raise announcement is yet another example of their strategic positioning within this contested market.

Firstly, the BoD would have been very well aware of the change of status of LTR from an ASX300 to an ASX200 listed stock. They also would have been very well aware of the announcement date.

Secondly, they would have been very well aware of the price at the time of the announcement and I suspect they may not have wanted the price above the $2.00 mark prior to the announcement. After all, the SP had recovered relatively quickly from its most recent retrace that ended on the 17th Nov to where is maxed out (interday) on the 26th Nov at 1.955.

Thirdly, the negotiations with institutions and sophisticated investors can only be held under wraps for so long without someone leaking somewhere - 450M is nothing to sneeze at so some significant negotiations needed to have taken place. Retail investors could only contribute a small proportion of this significant sum of money.

Fourthly, I believe the text below (with my highlights) provides a few breadcrumbs as to the thinking of the BoD.

“The Placement was well supported by existing Liontown shareholders and will also see new
investors join the register. The introduction of these high-quality institutions together with the support
shown by current shareholders has ensured that we emerge well capitalised with certainty of funding
for the Stage 1 capital cost of the initial 2.5 Mtpa development at Kathleen Valley.”

The current registry is relatively tightly held by by rusted on, die hard investors. As the text indicates this capital raise broadens out that registry to include new players and I would think that they are not players who will flip their allocations quickly. I would also think that those approached would have been chosen for their ability (and willingness) to invest further at key strategic points of LTRs ongoing development. This is indicated by the phase, "Stage 1 capital cost of the initial....".

From the above, my thoughts are that the BoD knew exactly what they were doing and were very strategic with their timing. If you look back at other key announcements, the BoD have tended to go a little earlier than what most (retail investors) have expected (hoped/wished) they should have. This tends to indicate to me they are very well aware of where things are at, even when there may be a short-lived hit to the SP. Buy going "early" and offering the cap raise SP at 1.65 I suspect that the BoD know that the SP will rerate to north of 2.00 very relatively quickly. If the BoD waited till after the movement of LTR from the ASX300 to the ASX200, given the recent momentum of the SP, then the offer price would have needed to be higher. Strategically this may have worked against the BoD and its ongoing aspirations - after all we are only entering stage 1 of development - more money is needed. Thus, investors (particularly institutional investors) need to see that they have achieved significant benefits in from their investment.

The story of LTR has to-date has been largely one that has been funded by sophisticated and retail investors. From this point on, the story will be one that is dominated by large institutions. Those institutions need need a return on their investment over the long-term. They are not interested in the day-to-day fluctuations of the SP. After all those same institutions will eat up retail if it suits their cause.

Of course, this is IMO and my trying to piece together what might be the long-term strategy from the direct announcements and the breadcrumbs that the BoD leave as the LTR journey continues.

As a final note, the drop in the SP below the 1.65 cap raise price may have as much to do with general market conditions at the moment as anything else. Dow Jones hit its 200EMA this week, NDX down 7.29% from its ATH on 24 Nov, SPX is down 4.33% from its ATH, All Ords is travelling in a sideways direction. The market is being influenced by other factors such as the latest COVID variant, questions re inflation, supply chain issues, etc.

Overall, as an investor - short or long-term - you need to sold on the story of what you are investing in and keep re-evaluating that story as more information becomes available.