SF@HC
Thanks for your additional thoughts
Your Response reminded me that administration assets seldom go for what the owner thinks they are worth. The buyer (PLS) is going after these knowing they are worth more .
Still back of an Envelop.
Summary :
@Macklemore thinks PLS paid slightly over half price for ALO ( AJM operations) 248 m instead of 459 m
That stake is incorporated into PLS books at around 3 billion ( likely bound Scenario) on 2/12/2022.
PLS and us as shareholders have 11 bags on that investment.
Detail
ALO administration timeline starts with not paying your bills and having disputes with your suppliers.For AJM this started June 2020 . So I looked at last MC's before that date .
Take for example Roman Abramowitz had a forced sale of Chelsea Football club UK Premier league in a hurry after Russian invasion of Ukraine Feb 2022. to Boehly-Clearlake consortium for 4.25 billion pounds ($5.33 billion) 30/5/2022 .The consortium fought off 11 serious rivals to become the new owners, in a sale process that started on 2 March and comprised more than 250 enquirers. Likely that got the market price.
Onetel ( ASX top30 company 23/11/1999 MC $ 3.8 billion) went bust in May 2001..
Liquidators only paid creditors 21 cents in the dollar. or 71 million.so value can be eroded a lot.
With the Altura mine sale 10/2022 only GXY and PLS were serious. PLS had a Deal with the Note Holders bypassing the Liquidators and ALO This left KordaMentha on the 1st of December 2020 declaring PLS cash offer conditional on AJM Creditors approval and PLS 240 m Capital raise .PLS grew in Market capitalization from 590 m in June 2020 to 1.815 Billion i.e 3.2 times. AJM grew at a slower rate from 149 m to final offer price of 248.m.
One could argue that AJM did not enjoy the share price apprehension due to the dual ASX requests and Disputes acting as an anchor. So the "likely scenario" is that AJM would have been worth $459m without the sharks circling.
PLS since December 2020 has produced just under 7 bags apprehension. to the 2/12/2022. Any way you cut the deal it is outstanding value for PLS shareholders in the hands of an innovative management and great financiers
(20min delay)