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Friday, 14 June 2024VEA - VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED
Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) - Following a material weakening of refining margins in the 2Q of 2024, Macquarie lowers its target for Viva Energy to $4.40 from $4.70. The Outperform rating is maintained as the share price has already fallen by around -20% since early-April.
Weaker global fuels demand growth, along with the ramp-up of the Dangote mega-refinery is behind the margin weakness, suggests the broker. Viva Energy's refining margin forecast is reduced to US$9.50/bbl versus US$12 in Q1.
Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $1.13 If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges). Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 10740.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.87. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.
Market Sentiment: 0.5All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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