Ann: S&P DJI Announces March 2022 Quarterly Rebalance, page-16

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Arktic1970

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09/03/22

08:47

Post #: 60075046
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Originally posted by Arktic1970: ↑

Not sure what your post means MK14EVA. Can you explain?

Regarding 88E making it into the All Ords (ASX 500), I view that very favorably. I don't know exactly how it works in Australia, but in the States, whenever a stock is included on such a list (e.g., S&P 500), then all index funds that emulate market averages much aquire a position in the company to fulfill their commitment to investors to match that metric. If company X is deleted from the list and company Y is added, then a lot of Index funds sell X and buy Y. Pricing follows accordingly.

What I see happening right now is that some insiders with sizeable share positions may be liquidating shares prior to spudding. Once the Merlin-2 well spuds, insiders will be prohibited from selling. Everybody knows the spud is coming. So, selling cannot be construed as trading on insider knowledge. Once the well begins to drill, an insider could rightfully be accused of selling based upon not yet disclosed well data. So, there may be some cashing out going on among those who need to sell now, not after the well has spud. Once the well spuds, then those sellers will ride with their residual positions hoping for an oily well. If my thesis is correct, the downward drift in the PPS will end quickly once the well spuds. How far up it will move is anybody's guess. If they hit a large amount of oil in Merlin-2, the upside for this stock could be very significant.

Expand

"must" not "much"... too late to edit.

Originally posted by Arktic1970: ↑

Not sure what your post means MK14EVA. Can you explain?

Regarding 88E making it into the All Ords (ASX 500), I view that very favorably. I don't know exactly how it works in Australia, but in the States, whenever a stock is included on such a list (e.g., S&P 500), then all index funds that emulate market averages much aquire a position in the company to fulfill their commitment to investors to match that metric. If company X is deleted from the list and company Y is added, then a lot of Index funds sell X and buy Y. Pricing follows accordingly.

What I see happening right now is that some insiders with sizeable share positions may be liquidating shares prior to spudding. Once the Merlin-2 well spuds, insiders will be prohibited from selling. Everybody knows the spud is coming. So, selling cannot be construed as trading on insider knowledge. Once the well begins to drill, an insider could rightfully be accused of selling based upon not yet disclosed well data. So, there may be some cashing out going on among those who need to sell now, not after the well has spud. Once the well spuds, then those sellers will ride with their residual positions hoping for an oily well. If my thesis is correct, the downward drift in the PPS will end quickly once the well spuds. How far up it will move is anybody's guess. If they hit a large amount of oil in Merlin-2, the upside for this stock could be very significant.

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88E Price at posting: 4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 0.2¢		Change -0.001(20.0%)		Mkt cap ! $72.23M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.3¢	0.3¢	0.2¢	$27.43K	9.497M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
610	999669195	0.2¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.3¢	401876096	97

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
610	999669195	0.002
147	772239148	0.001
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000
0	0	0.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.003	401876096	97
0.004	481546064	192
0.005	113648938	92
0.006	65511073	57
0.007	117035488	43

Last trade - 12.55pm 06/06/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 0.2¢		Change -0.001 ( 13.0 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
0.3¢	0.3¢	0.2¢	4829582
Last updated 13.42pm 06/06/2024 ?

88E (ASX) Chart

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