A good post which highlights the challenging FY24 WGX had. The closer of Paddy Flat's Underground meant they simply could not meet guidance and in hindsight, should have ripped the bandaid off when they first decided to close Paddy, but what is done is done. I note that in your view... because WGX had a poor FY24, it is basically uninvestable and I am delusional? Yet I could just as easily provide the very similar outcomes and figures for ALK (which you have been buying and recently met the MD). ALK actually did not meet guidance for the first time in 10 years...... ALK is in peak spend on non-sustaining capex for the next 18 months, WGX has been at peak spend and is starting to tail off..... WGX is all about future growth. Just like ALK, except WGX growth outcomes are going to bear fruit 12 months earlier.
WGX has had to rely heavily on it's stockpiles (which is still has approx 5mt, which is exactly it's purpose, to be there are the end of the LOM or... when needed to plug gaps), because.... they large investments they are making in their mines takes time to bear fruit (just like ALK).
Wayne has never tried to overblow WGX, in fact, he has been trying hard to downplay the upside, especially after Paddy Flat made it impossible to be conservative (he thought he had been in his initial FY24 guidance, but... early Great Fignall ore was just not going to happen in the timeframe they originally thought). @Joelstar - FY25 guidance could be quite conservative, particularly after the Paddy fail.... and... it's not like incorporating Karora is going to be a walk in the park. Though I do think it's pretty clear, 400k+ means.... more than 400k. Costs.... I am hopeful they will be similar to FY24 (2200-2400 AISC).
Cheers @Ironman2020 - though I disagree about it's performance share price wise...? If you mean production and costs, yes, FY24 as above, was a frustrating one after making so much progress in FY23. Also, WGX have been plouging money into it's mines for 2 years now (not just under the ground, but power generation and exploration too, a lot of this is just starting to pay off yes, but it will continue to build literally and figuratively).
For context Wassa, my poor charting skills hopefully still show that WGX has outperformed many of its peers.
Pretty good to come runner up to the best miner in the business (CMM).
Though of course, the charts could be tweaked to find differing outcomes, I chose 3 years as a decent time horizon.
Regarding mill expansion, I think the near term, that is not an issue, as Bluebird can run more tonnes. The key to success for WGX is higher grades and... filling the mill with only U/G ore, hopefully we will see a much reduced use of stockpiles in FY25 and in FY26 (very little to none).
Thanks @Joelstar, I admit it has not been easy sitting on my hands with WGX, especially with the downgrade to guidance... that hurt my confidence.
No one seems to ponder that RMS... went after both Karora and WGX (but got neither), so it finally went after SPR (arguably the best asset in the industry right now), does that not say something about WGX asset base.... RMS think they are good....
@TrendTracker who do you think are better U/G miners than WGX? Is there any other company in W.A (or Australia) that owner operates all their U/G mines? CMM are the best at open pit, no doubt about that. Agree about leverage and high cost producers, hopefully WGX has good timing as it progressively becomes a lower (not the lowest) cost producer with larger scale.
There are some very exciting tale winds starting to be felt by the gold miners... which will hopefully accelerate, particularly in regards to fuel prices, staffing cost increases slowing and staffing (more and more base metal mines are going under, which is sad, but.. should all but guarantee any gold producer has the staff they need).
hmph... I just want a big juicy 30 page update on exploration.... as if I am right, guidance is going to be boring and conservative, with any real excitement to come in the second half when Great Fingall and South Junction kick in.
WGX Price at posting:
$2.78 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)