I'm not a day trader, but the idea of echo chambers can be dangerous for new investors reading the forums.
i think it's healthy to have a range of viewpoints. Whilst I believe the metrics of hawsons is compelling, there are a few things that can work against them.
The biggest risk is cost and the potential blow out. The updated figures by IRR that Tran is using for the NPV is underestimating that cost, IMO. Other miners at a similar scale have had cost blow outs of over 50%. The effect of inflation and covid is no joke to the junior miners. This risk can be obviously minimised by a JV, which would be a great thing.
The next is the scale of operation. Personally, I believe this will blow out timelines, and not insignificantly.
Lastly, I think their scheduled timeframe is a double edged sword. Initially, it'll make new investors keen to buy in due to the short time frame. But if time lines are not kept, we know investors hate missed time frame targets, and the time to reach FID, historically for other developers, has not been a short time frame.
I am positive even with opex and Capex blowouts the npv and IRR is still massive, and the shift towards green steel is happening rapidly. If management can pull off things, this will be a great investment. But I'm keenly aware that this may not happen by 2024/2025.
i appreciate Trans posts greatly, and to some degree I appreciate treefellers input as well.
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