Merlon Capital on AYS:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-strategic-value-of-amaysimTheir assumption in table 2 (value of NSA to an MNO) regarding the contribution margin in their "low case" (50% CM) is way off, i.e., too low. CM is for Optus is currently rather 90-95%, because as an MNO you only need 1-2 people plus some APIs to manage the relationship to an MVNO. Would be the same for any other MNO.
Other than that, most stuff in the article seems about right.
Big picture: It comes down to whether or not VDA/TPG will let Optus get a great deal (the current offer seems a joke along several dimensions), or if they interfere + try and snap up AYS themselves – or at least make the acquisition more expensive for Optus (which would be a very rational thing to do...). Telstra seems unable to buy AYS directly (antitrust), but one of the MVNOs on their network could...
Will be interesting to see how this all plays out going forward.
