AGS 0.00% 17.5¢ alliance resources limited

Ann: Sale Of The Four Mile Uranium Project, page-188

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    963 Posts.
    When I first started investing just after the slump of 2008 I thought I would buy companies with a really good resource and hold for long term, say 5 plus years. Thats why I bought AGS, I also bought IRN, RWD, GGG, NKP, IBG, IVR and others over the years. I have decided it isnt a good strategy. I could of made 5 bags on IRN but ended with 20%, I could have sold on market but waited for the take over to finalise and instead it fell through. RWD is selling now at the levels I bought at in 09, I sold out a while ago for a modest profit. GGG I made a bit but it is way down now. NKP I lost big time. IBG lost big time, clawed a bit back a month or so ago. IVR lost big time (for me). Did well in MHM and ADO, though was very fortunate to get out of MHM when I did. We all know how AGS has gone. So this experience influences how I view AGS now.

    For a number of reasons I think we will get an offer for ACE probably before the agm, primarily because of the Itochu deal with its DSR program. I am gambling on that, but something else favourable might occur instead. I will look at any valuation material but at this time I think anything around $10/lb for the first 100mlb is reasonable and say $2/lb for anything over. I would put the resource at 100 to 150mlb. My reasoning is it will be 10 to 20 years to get through the first 100mlb so discount the reserve. So AGS share is $250m to $275m or .70 to .80 cents in my ball park estimation. There may be some creative features to an offer boosting it to a dollar to sweeten the deal. I would welcome an offer higher but I am pessimistic by nature.

    As a back up plan, holding till we have a good dividend stream and Uranium recovers is logical. If I could get .60 cents plus I would be out of AGS and looking for other opportunities rather than holding to squeeze some more value out. There are other uranium stocks and other stocks that could easily be undervalued, .60 cents from some disenbursement and selling AGS would be a large part of the potential for this investment. I have no idea how the Board will treat any money received from the sale of ACE.

    This isnt advice, just my opinion. Its probably sound advice not to be influenced by my opinion, form your own.
 
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