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28/09/19
22:05
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Originally posted by zebster:
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It's not as wow as you might think. I think you're confusing actual quarterly metrics with forecast annual metrics. Production was 1.5kt contained Ni for the June quarter. In the most recent update (3 Sept update), the production for July and August were tracking along similar lines, which was much less than originally anticipated, given the project is currently in ramp-up phase. The 2017 FS projected an average production during the LOM of ~10,800t Ni p.a. (call it 11,000t p.a.). This is an overall project average which this first 12-18 months of ramp-up would never be expected to attain. If this quarter's production mirrors the June quarter, then it will be 3,000t Ni produced over the past six months, which annualises to 6,000t p.a at current production rates. These numbers should be increasing but are not... yet. Contrast that against management's revised downward production guidance of 9,500-10,000t for the 2019/20 FY (same 3 Sept update) and you will begin to appreciate that they still have some way to go in getting the ramp-up back on track. I'm expecting further (downward) revision(s) to production guidance between now and March next year. Things should hopefully improve thereafter.
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Thanks very much for the info, yes, I'll admit I were confusing myself with quarterly production with annual production. short term doesn't seem that positive, only opportunity to buy more for future growth. I also seriously feel that at current SP, future growth hasn't been factored in SP.