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Ann: Sales Growth & Production Capability Ramp-up in October, page-13

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Bocas Boy

1,883 Posts.

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05/11/18

13:16

Post #: 36391685
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Originally posted by 22112215 ↑

Ok, lets start with the June quarterly.
Inventory was at 5642 productions units, the majority being cf25. A larger part of that is flagged to be sold in months ahead. Think of the floor space alone this would be taking up. Revenue from these sales is expected to be around $1,500,000 over the course of FY19. On a quarterly bases if we add another half year it averages to be around $250k. We know accounts receivable at end of quarter was $141k from June sales. June quarter also had a backlog of $450k in orders.
Sep quarter
109k in cash receipts generated in Sep. $141 + $109k= $250k. Not sure why slight discrepancy of $4k in 4c, discount because of slight variance in quality on an order maybe?
Oct flagged as having $270k in cash receipts. 1200 c/ft in order book for Nov-Dec. 1200c/ft @ $321 per c/ft = $385k. Plus Oct receipts of $270k = $655k. Now Dec orders may not show until Jan so for arguments sake let's say backlog for each month is equal (600c/ft). That gives us $462k roughly. Now add inventory avg sales over FY19/20 of $250k= $712k.
Now production is becoming a consistent density and quality one could figure on nameplate capacity of around 70% being reached in coming quarter or 2, if not above that already. 25,000x.70= 17,500 c/ft, or 4375 c/ft a quarter at 321= $1.4 million roughly.
This is not taking into account production of cf25 which would discount value of inventory being made but remember if another tool maker as the one stated in previous Ann or any other high grade manufacturer comes on board then name plate capacity could be solely aimed at production of cf30+, thus being at higher end of revenue. At full capacity of 25,000c/ft it equates to roughly $2,000,000 a quarter in inventory a quarter being made. Obviously this is at least 2-4 quarters away but with current sales and continued ramp up $655k is not unrealistic.
Phase 2 in my opinion needs to be brought forward which I assume depending on the consistent quality now only needs another manufacturer other than TAC to become a catalyst for a decision being confirmed. The problem I see is we need phase 2 complete before we can supply any other manufacturer.
Why did you think current S/P would make this not possible? It moved 20% the other day on less than a $1k of shares being traded. Hardly a indicator of the future of production or revenue.

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Cool story Bro as it plummets back down to 15c lol are you part of Alains team? Because no one with all their faculties could possibly think "the team" as you put it are doing a good job in fact it's pretty much the polar opposite since he took over at least the last lot of snakes kept the SP high 20's low 30's most of the time!

CFO Price at posting: 15.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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