thanks Batcher
after writing that post I studied some more on salars. Although I still have the above PNN specific questions outstanding I looked at AGY as a reference and napkin maths tells me in theory PNN could achieve slightly better than their 2018 PEA defined 10ktpa LCE base case due to blending capability, then I update Li pricing (huge upside). If anyone is interested here are my workings:
AGY base case 10ktpa LCE NPV10 US$327M 35% IRR, using sensitivity table below I adjust to what I think PNN could achieve. AGY Rincon is a logical reference point since its nearby to PNN and it has ~240,000t LCE resource (hypothetically PNN 180,000 Incahuasi LCE tonnes blending w/ 60,000t Rincon = 240,000t).
Blending allows considerably less reagents = AGY reagents is about 65% of opex, reduce opex from US$4600/t to US$3500/t = +US$130M NPV10
Blending allows less evap pond expenditure = AGY evap ponds are US$44M perhaps reduce by -US$15M to US$29M = +US$9M NPV10
Most studies released nowadays are using Roskill LCE price forecast which is essentially US$24,000/t for the foreseeable future = AGY used $13,000, up to $24,000 = +US$769M NPV10
PNN hypothetical NPV10 = $327+$130+$9+769M = US$1,235M pre-tax ~US$864M post-tax using a crude 30% deduction (A$1200M)
PNN hypothetical IRR = ~100% using same methodology
PNN hypothetical OPEX US$3500/t LCE and CAPEX ~US$200M
PNN a multiproject company currently trading at ~$30m, which is about
2.5% of NPV10 A$1200M for Salta aloneOne critical thing not captured here is the structural difference in the accelerated blending capability. AGY is a normal salar evap project. I don't have a reference point for a blending operation (if anyone knows of one please share), just thinking out aloud here, but if it takes a fraction of the time to concentrate the salts, I imagine the throughput could be increased significantly. ie. what would normally be a 10ktpa LCE operation using evaporation could become a 30-40ktpa operation resource size and economics permitting?
I compared PNN blended Li concentration rates with LPI Maricunga evap below since this is a project I am familiar with, its night and day
(20min delay)