How about the additional upside? Price and demand for nickel...

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johnbeau

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05/10/20

10:56

Post #: 47850756
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Originally posted by ccdavid: ↑

The Raise bore (900 Meters) was started way back March 2019 with original Diameter of 4.5 Meters.
By May , they barely made a progress and so a decision to reduce the reamer head to
4.1 meters. This change made a positive impact and by end of June 2019(1 Month) managed
96 Meters. They were making a good progress and reamed approximately 560Meters by Dec 2019 when
the lower 130 meters became unstable and the job was halted. They evaluated the situation and came to a solution
of making a horizontal Drive 468 Meters to intercept the Raise bore at approximately just above the unstable
portion(130 Meters) so that the Reamer head can be reattached at this level and will also serve as a service
area if ever a problem with stability occurs in the future.
Now we come to the new PAN. Barminco completed the Horizontal Drive in Record time (No mocking Around)
Specialist Raise Bore Contractor, RUC will recommence completing this Job(354M left) at now an even reduced
Reamer Diameter to just 3.85M. With this , They should be able to finish this well ahead of schedule. That Diameter
is now reduced by 17% from the original Diameter of 4.5 Meters. By saying that, it is now just 354 Meters deep.
This should not cost much as the raise bore just involve a max 5 personnel to do the job. Just an operator above
controlling the reamer and a couple of guys manning below. The waste just drops down below and cleared.
At the meantime, Barminco will be opening Stopes ready for the planned mining operation hopefully by April to
Jun quarter. As you can see, The New Management has now forecasted a very Conservative production at just around
5.5 KT for the first year. They gave themselves a big margin of error. Before, with twin decline in progress plus raise bore,
Management forecast a 10KT/Year Production and hardly managed 5KT and incurred so much cash burn averaging 32 to 40M
OPEX and CAPEX per quarter. Add this 90 Million capital raising to keep this mine alive which is why PAN is now a
2 billion shares company and left so many shareholders miserable. Looking Forward now, PAN is in a very good position
with no DEBT and have enough CASH to prepare the mine to its optimum Restart. Definitely, a Capital raising will
be needed for the restart. I'd say, 20 to 30 Million operating capital will be needed. Hopefully when it restart mid 2021,
COVID 19 will have a Vaccine and PoN surging US$7.00 Plus. By then , PAN sp should be around 15 c (300M Market Cap)
A 20 million Capital raising at 15c = 135 Million shares. If PAN exceeded Guide line production in the first year, SP can rise
20c which I think at 400M plus Market Cap is achievable by end of 2021(double current sp). DYOR

Expand

How about the additional upside? Price and demand for nickel could go higher. Exploration underway. More cost reductions within the next 18 months, not to mention possible take over target creating a bidding war.

PAN Price at posting: 9.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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