Take your point on liquidity but no one can predict exchange rate movements. In fact liquidity could be a real issue for anyone taking up CDIs with intention to trade . People going long will not be so effected if we assume PoG commences an upward climb from here . About 50% of the current NCM registry is held by the top 20 shareholders. They would all have US and/or Canadian international accounts so will probably move all their new CDIs away from the ASX to offshore accounts reducing liquidity on the ASX. There is a mechanism in the Scheme for them to do this. There may also be a big hit ex special div for those not wanting exposure to CDIs post Scheme. From my calculations the NEM and NCM share prices are calibrated taking the special div into account, in fact NCM holders are slightly ahead . The only monetary difference will be (if you bought today) is that you will have a fully franked div but your portfolio will show a decrease by a like amount. That is the calibrated current NCM share price takes to account the spec div and you will have an unrealised capital loss in your Portfolio by a like amount. Your operating statement however will receive the taxable spec div with associated franking credits.So all in all , the transaction will proceed and I think the those NCM holders who are unsure as to the holding risks going forward should sell now . You can also take up the spec div and sell ex div for a short period but I suspect the NCM share price will dive by a like amount or greater. Imo it's a matter of whether you want to go long with the largest gold producer paying a yield of greater than 4%. The yield , although unfranked, is ok if we accept that perhaps the world has reached the top of the interest rate cycle. The Royal Bank of Canada has today increased their outlook on the PoG over the 6 months.
