Those Dx projections just on their own make the SP look like $4...

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pilko3

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18/07/22

15:12

Post #: 62590860
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Originally posted by blakesley: ↑

Not an expert but from my very quick skim of the 288 pages it is really only the Independent Valuation Report from Acuity that is worth looking at. It's 26 pages of which only Section 5 - a measly 6 pages has valuation metrics (pdf page 181 onwards).

Looking at Section 5.3 Project Cash Flow for ResAppDx as an example.

Total annual revenues for ResAppDx at peak estimated at US$86m. Which is slightly different to Table 3 at the start of the section (I am assuming the Asian numbers in this table are wrong as that is close to total annual amount that I calculated based on their assumptions - but it is a pretty simple check on the quality of the report).

The probability adjusted revenue peak is then stated as $74M. From Table 7 - valuation pdf page 188) this then becomes a range of $46.2-$89.1M.

So is the report valuing us based on only 1 year of revenues for ResAppDx? Seems a pretty unrealistic way of valuing the revenue stream?

Assuming this is what they've done for our other products then is Acuity suggesting a peak annual revenue valuation range of $140 to $270M USD.

I've probably made some horrible assumptions and gotten my logic completely wrong but it seems like Pfizer want to pay less than 1 yrs peak revenue for RAP, makes my No vote decision even easier to make.

To keep this in-house I'd happily support a Cap Raise of $13M or 10% dilution to hold on to the potential of this baby.

Just my thoughts.

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Those Dx projections just on their own make the SP look like $4 or so...a $3.3 million windfall to Pfizer plus the fallout from the Covid test. Lets just say Pfizer stand to make shiteloads out of this rort...or should I say they hope to. Too bad the odds (SP Bookies odds) are $1.65 SH and $2.95 Pfizer on the Vote no/yes outcome. Don't like their chances!

RAP Price at posting: 13.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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