TGR tassal group limited

Ann: Scheme Booklet Registered with ASIC, page-3

  1. 6,633 Posts.
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    They include a number of scenarios to come up with price ranges, the base case, Scenario A which included 5.5% growth in international prices.

    Scenario A: Gives a company value of $1,549m to $1,733m
    Scenario F: Scenario A, except International prices are 10% higher in FY24 to FY27, it values the company at $1,779m to $1,989m
    Scenario F: Scenario A, except International prices are 10% lower in FY24 to FY27, it values the company at $1,318m to $1,478m

    International prices in those years are based on two Analysts, and i assume one of those is GS who were representing Tassal, and the other was BarrenJoey, who produced what i consider to be a flawed DCF due to their flat prices, and which i triggered the flash crash just prior to the official opening moves of the takeover.

    The analyst prices arent very independent.

    The valuation they come up with is $1,500 to $1,650 which is $4.64 to $5.35 per share, it neatly covers the range of offers Cooke has made.

    If they used Scenario F, following calcs in 3.3.1 (which removed debt etc), it gives a range of to $5.94 to $6.90

    They say there is a control premium, but i think they are calculating against the previous SP price, they arent adding it to their own fair value calculations like was done to Huon.

    I am not capable of analysing it properly, especially due to the inflationary environment we are in, but it looks like they came up with numbers to keep enough people happy.

 
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