I would assume insto's most likely value the merged entity to be...

I would assume insto's most likely value the merged entity to be worth more than SLR as a solo entity, which is true but that doesn't mean that SLR can't get a bit more of the pie before a merger; even in the event of a no vote that doesn't land a superior offer from Red, SLR is still undervalued stock as a solo entity. I personally would say the potential upside benefit is worth the downside risk for voting no, which goes back to my numbers of 80/20 that they'd give 1/4 in the event of a no vote. In the event of a no superior offer (20% chance my guesstimate) then SLR rerates as a solo entity. This isn't really a problem for SLR as it will most likely rerate higher, Red on the other hand they're more likely to rerate lower.