I personally will still be voting no, as I think the odds that...

I personally will still be voting no, as I think the odds that Red will allow the deal to fall through over bumping up the ratios to say 1/4 are lower than the odds of them just bumping up the ratios a bit to push the merger through. This is just my own personal guess but I would say there is an 80% chance they'd offer 1/4 to push the deal through and a 20% chance that they would just let the merger fall through. These are made up numbers and I am unable to actually quantify what Red would do, are their other offers for Red on the table? Maybe we don't actually have negotiating power... My guess is mainly based on how much SLR needs Red vs how much Red needs SLR. SLR would put Red in a MUCH better position than it currently is, while Red would put SLR in a slightly better position than where it is now. Also offering 1/4 does not cost them anything it only costs share dilution of Red holders which is fair considering they want SLR holders to dilute their assets

In terms of possible outcomes (not sure if I've missed any):
SLR - Red merge - Long term value - short term loss for SLR - short term gain for Red
SLR - Red merge but after voting no (superior proposal 1/4) - Long term value - short term loss for SLR - short term gain for Red
SLR - Red merge but after voting no (superior proposal 1/5) - Long term value - No loss SLR - No loss Red
SLR - Red don't merge after voting no - SLR short term gain - Red short term loss

Possibilities on a failed merger for SLR vs Red (probably missed a lot)
SLR has cash for merger, acquisition or to get acquired, they can build up current assets, purchase assets basically a lot of options available.
Red is stuck with debt and only able to merge or be acquired, long road to build up current assets.

This is just some of the thought process on how I came up with the number 80/20. This is part of the reason why I think they would be likely to offer a superior proposal in the event of a no vote. As you can see it would still overall be a good deal for Red to offer 1/4 and they have much more at stake if the merger fails than SLR does.

We should technically be in the position of power in negotiations but if SLR wants the merger more than Red does and SLR is unwilling to walk away, well in that case, we'll just have to settle for 1/3.43 instead of a more reasonable 1/4.