Plenty of debate on rate rise effect on gold. I think it is unfounded. If anyone remembers back to the 80's, interest rates were soaring and so too was the gold price. That was because of inflation and rapidly rising rates did not slow the gold price until they hit around 15% on US bonds in the early 80's from around 5% in 1970. POG rose from below $50/oz to $800/oz during that same period of extraordinary rate rises. Given that history why do people believe claims that interest rates coming off near zero are going to push gold lower? Perhaps the talk is having some effect on the short term gold price but maybe it's got more to do with short term inflation expectations. Rates rise with inflation expectations and POG also generally rises with inflation expectations.
Here is some data on more recent stats (since 1986) which again shows there is no reason to expect POG to fall when rates rise. In fact these stats point to gold being more likely to rise after rates rise. The stats show that 61% of the time after the FED raises rates, the POG is higher -not lower - after 12 months (and higher 55% of the time in that same month that rates rise). On average, the POG is UP by 7.2% 12 months after the FED raises rates. That average gain would see the POG at $1410 this time next year. Of course this is what happens statistically so shouldn't be used as a guide on what to expect this time but it does show that claims the gold price will fall based on one variable of rates rising are wrong.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/137...es-gold-will-go-up-says-30-years-of-data.html
Bring on the rate rise, get it out of the way and the statistics point to a POG in excess of $1400 would be the more likely result in 12 months - not a fall.
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