Most the credible peers use pricing that lands the long-term at a FOB equivalent around USD500+t. If you model that into AVZ on this study's parameter, add in tax, funding structure etc... Then the NPV os a per share basis is sub 20cps at 10% discount rate. Doing the same but assuming LOM price of USDD920/t, the NPV per share is ~$0.30. This project is more marginal than initially promoted in my view and looks like its just a bull market asset, not strategic. I don't think investors will make the kind of money they thought either. Its a few bags if only the best outcomes come to fruition (being spod price at questionably high levels forever).
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- Ann: Scoping Study Highlights Strong Economic Potential of Manono
Ann: Scoping Study Highlights Strong Economic Potential of Manono, page-124
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