For those with an open mind wondering why market reacted to this SS the way it did
a) This is a scoping study and by nature based on generous "technical" assumptions which will be proved up in further expert studies that will follow
b) NPV (7%) under $300M - Stock already trading 50% of that [with feasibility study pending, funding needed, construction & commissioning risks still ahead]. Run the NPV @8% and put risk weightings on all outstanding risks and CNB will start looking fully valued (sans exploration upside)
c) Downstream :- Economics are contingent on successful negotiations with Glencore. There are 2 issues here a) Glencore's commitment to Mount Isa is on weak footing, b) If they will play ball - it will be on their terms as they wont mind packing up and leaving Mt Isa - They have bigger fish to fry.
d) Operating risk: This project economics look good if commodities outlook remain strong but not robust enough to sustain a commodities downcycle.
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7 | 47261 | 0.390 |
4 | 98801 | 0.385 |
3 | 57500 | 0.380 |
4 | 152666 | 0.360 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.420 | 500 | 1 |
0.425 | 18181 | 2 |
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