CNB (ASX) Ann: Scoping Study Results Greater Duchess Project

Originally posted by Dragone64: ↑

Dear Giovanni - are you italian?

Interesting summary, to which I would add a few more points.

The CU story is now more or less understood. Here you should simply realize that the big producers have no reason to hurry. They want to make money - not save the planet. Whether they maintain or increase their profits by selling 100k tons of copper or 75k tons (as an example) is completely irrelevant to them. Think back to OPEC's price power in the oil sector - except that there was never really a shortage of oil. In other words, from my point of view, the price of CU is not coming back. I assume that we will end up at USD/lb 8.00 in the next 2-3 years.

Let's move on to the junior explorers and ask ourselves why they are not moving. Well, it's relatively simple. Before the big machine starts running and the big boys start investing, the above has to happen. Which means that - as you have already mentioned - it has to be worth investing. This will only be the case at CU prices of USD 12-15000 per ton. What is important here is that the investor can assume that these prices will remain more or less constant over a longer period of time. That, for example, the energy transition will actually gain momentum.

If investments are then made, M&A activity will increase first. See BHP/Anglo. This is more “cosmetic” and an increase in market power - and less an increase in production. Once this “wave” is over, you can only grow by either pushing ahead with projects yourself or buying some. The former has been and is being blatantly neglected - hardly any investment has been made.The latter is where the Junior Explorers come into play.

The first to receive funds are those where a “project” is close to production. Should CNB actually want to - and be able to - go into production in 2026, money will flow here. Whether a major is interested in buying something like this remains to be seen. Medium sized producers could very well have an interest in investing here.

So the money is flowing down the hill from stage to stage and fills one bucket after the other. First the low hanging fruits - the realizable projects - then the somewhat more difficult stories - the “fantasy” stories - will not get money even at a CU price of 15000. So you see that correctly - 50% of the “stories” are crap.

There was already a phase like this before the 2008 financial crisis - back then the CU price exploded because of China. There was an incredible amount of money to be made in the explorer sector.

Then the question of the “quality” of a Junior Explorer arises. What is important: the management team, the geologists, the tenements (potential) and - something of the most important: cash. In addition, the “connection” to an area where the infrastructure for production is already in place.

CNB would fulfill several points here. I therefore assume that CNB will go into production. I also assume that the whole region will consolidate - which will also be interesting for other explorers (on the other side of the fence).

I maintain my view that CNB's SP will still scratch the 1 dollar mark in 2024. Have a good weekend everyone and DYOR

PS: I am an indirect holder via HMX

Expand

I agree, but I think it's less about the energy transition and more about countries industrialising. India, Middle East and Africa are the 3 zones I'm watching as it's closely tied to the long term movements of copper.

Rest is pretty on point. Especially how many questionable companies there are on the ASX that even a bull market won't change. CNB is not one of them in my opinion.

But for now it will likely be a bit lacklustre in terms of SP purely due to where it sits on the development curve, until further de-risking or resource expansion news comes out. I will keep buying more systematically as things go on.

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Last 36.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $62.75M

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37.0¢	37.5¢	36.0¢	$50.71K	137.9K

Ann: Scoping Study Results Greater Duchess Project, page-73

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