The June 2025announcement materially strengthens the investment case for James Bay Minerals(ASX: JBY), building on and validating the thesis laid out in the February 2025research note. Here's how it shifts the investment narrative:
Positive Developments
- Scoping Study Progress – Key De-risking Milestone
Resource Clarity and Expansion Potential
- Engaging Kappes, Cassiday & Associates to lead the Scoping Study validates management's execution strategy and shows tangible progress toward near-term development of the oxide resource.
- Focus on open-pit, heap-leach operation reinforces the economic model highlighted in the original thesis, particularly given Nevada's supportive cost structure and infrastructure.
High-Grade Skarn Resource Now Quantified
- The oxide resource is now explicitly stated as 294koz @ 0.40g/t (Indicated) and 91koz @ 0.32g/t (Inferred), aligning well with the previous NI 43-101 estimates and confirming confidence in existing resources.
- A further 370m of strike outside the current MRE footprint is now being explored, reinforcing the potential to increase the near-surface resource from ~385koz to 500koz+, a key valuation lever in the original thesis.
Confirmation of Development Optionality
- The high-grade skarn mineralisation has now been officially classified at 984koz @ 6.67g/t Au (Inferred), compared to 796koz estimated in the earlier report. This ~20% uplift in high-grade ounces materially increases the asset's optionality and attractiveness, especially for potential acquirers like Nevada Gold Mines (NGM).
- The dual-resource strategy—low-cost near-term oxide development with high-grade skarn optionality—has moved from conceptual to structured, staged planning, improving clarity on the path to production and longer-term value realisation.
⚖️ Neutral/Remaining Risks
- No Metallurgical Update Yet
Execution and Funding Still Required
- Metallurgy was cited as a key risk in the earlier note. The June announcement doesn't address recovery testing or ore type processing plans. This remains a crucial de-risking step for the heap-leach strategy.
- The update reaffirms the strategic pathway but doesn't address funding for development or exploration. These concerns—particularly dilution risk—remain relevant.
Net Impact: Strongly Positive
Investment CaseEnhancement:
- The announcement affirms heap-leach viability, extends mineralisation, and increases both oxide and skarn resource confidence.
- It improves the likelihood of a near-term re-rating and enhances long-term takeover logic through stronger project scale and synergy potential.
ValuationImplications:
- Based on previous peer takeout valuations (~$137/oz), the updated figures (~1.37Moz Au in total) place JBY’s resource base at ~$188M, vs. its current ~$63M market cap, indicating 2–3x upside still in play.
- The resource expansion pathway (targeting ~2Moz) is now more credible, increasing the probability of realizing the $200M–$300M valuation range mentioned in the February note.
Conclusion
This update is atextbook confirmation of the February investment thesis. It enhances visibility on resource scale,validates the heap-leach development route, and reinforces the strategic appealto potential acquirers. For current holders, it supports continued confidenceand potential accumulation onweakness, pending metallurgical confirmation.
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62.0¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $44.55M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
62.0¢ | 62.3¢ | 62.0¢ | $29.40K | 47.42K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 447 | 62.0¢ |
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64.0¢ | 15000 | 1 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 447 | 0.620 |
2 | 2700 | 0.555 |
1 | 13000 | 0.550 |
2 | 23529 | 0.540 |
3 | 26800 | 0.530 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.640 | 15000 | 1 |
0.645 | 8690 | 1 |
0.650 | 22051 | 4 |
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0.700 | 44384 | 4 |
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