Adriano, 1000bopd is not that far away (assuming debt/finance is...

Adriano, 1000bopd is not that far away (assuming debt/finance is announced soon):

assuming flow rates are relatively consistent (as per what they said in the announcement today), the next 2 wells (NRI is approx 20% total accross the 2 i think) should add 120ish bopd. lets say that it decreases to 1/3 of that value in 6 months.
the current wells at Pathfinder are due to come onboard soon (3-6 months) and add to production. i will call that a total of 100bopd as an estimate
i'm going to assume 3 new wells (22.5% NRI) with Halcon over the next 6 months, replicating what we saw today that is about 135bopd each. (then declining of course).

conservatively that is 500bopd based on the above, within 6 months. which is 2.5c according to the discussion above.

that doesn't account for any of Stifflemire, Nemo or Kaiser getting to APO levels (i assume 40-50bopd net AKK minimum from each in about 12 months). also 6 months more drilling (lets say another 3 wells) will add more.

so yes, it may be overvalued today - but if 1000bopd is taking it to 5c i think 12 months is a very reasonable timeframe (assuming finance is sorted asap).