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I always stuff up using that table! The EBITDA number is $189m....

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Pihrana

219 Posts.

105

28/05/21

16:50

Post #: 53495394
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Originally posted by Pihrana: ↑
G'day Ned,

Sorry I've been out of touch, just sitting back patiently watching everything fall into place.

Good post, I totally agree with your thinking. Those grades are very exciting! As I have suggested it is extremely rare for a high grade haematite deposit to exist as a stand alone, it's almost unheard of. I don't think the market understands that the resource is open to N/E and S/E - this is very positive! I will bet my left knacker that there will be extensions to the resource base here, but there is no hurry to do so. Use the cash to get to name-plate as quickly as possible and allocate free cash to expand the resource base in latter years - there will be plenty of accumulated cash in reserve, even after a 70% payout to shareholders. These guys have done a remarkable job to date!

Some estimates from the model:

Year 3, Production 1.33mt, Fe 62% US150/t, Payout 70%, Cost USD$60/t, AUD 0.76, Export 50% Domestic 50%, Share Price $0.10c, Mkt Cap $205M

1 EBITDA 9m

2 EBIT $184m

3 NPAT $138m

4 FCF $136m

5 Div $95m

6 Div/Share $0.05

7 Yield 50%

8 Accum Cash Post Div $93m

Sit tight, there is lots of fun to be had here!

Cheers

Pihrana
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I always stuff up using that table!

The EBITDA number is $189m. Cheers

TI1 Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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