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1.4¢ tombador iron limited

Hi Ned,OK. Models are built on plucked numbers but lets run with...

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Pihrana

219 Posts.

105

28/05/21

20:05

Post #: 53499396
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Originally posted by redned71: ↑

Thanks Pihrana.
there’s never any rush. This is a medium/long term play.
only number I’d query is IO price in 3 years. Everything would need to be right for it to be at $150, although, I could easily argue that case. Obviously all the trillions of $ of infrastructure spends would still be ramping up. But Brazil/Vale likely ok by then, plus other new capacity coming onstream. Bit hard to guess what that all adds to.
but even at $130/120, or even an unlikely $100, we’re still making very good money and paying nice divs. Any thoughts on when they will actually declare and pay first div? Maybe the half yearly Ann early 2022, with div in that q?
I would think if we hit more of the good stuff as we both think probable, then they would likely be looking to increase output above that 1,33mtpa? Or are there rate limiting steps, like truck/road capacity, etc?
not really necessary, just thinking out loud of some other maybes.
cheers,
ned.

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Hi Ned,

OK. Models are built on plucked numbers but lets run with @ US$100/t 62%Fe. Year 3. 1.33mtpa. (Even @ US$80/t numbers are OK)

EBITDA $99m
EBIT $94m
NPAT $71m
FCF $69m
DIV $48m
DIV/Share $0.02c
Yield $23%
Accum Cash $42m

Truck and road capacity is fine.

Cheers

Pihrana

TI1 Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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