I would say to you not all commodity cycles are created equal, there's a world of difference between iron ore and oil for example.
One saw a massive expansion due to Chinese construction growth which now looks very speculative indeed and the other could barely maintain production at $100 U.S. per barrel despite as you say the laughable "stronger for longer" mantra and the fact the oil is still at the heart of the world economy.
Now the "lower for longer" mantra is the laughable one.
U.S. production is declining rapidly (unlike Iron Ore which is long life sunk cost), it's widely expected to start increasing again before the end of 2016 limiting inventory drawdowns. That's simply not going to happen.
As I mentioned earlier the cheapest U.S. play is not a shale oil play but a retapping of the Permian basin in Texas. An increase of 17 Rigs in the U.S. last week (quite a lot) 8 went to the Permian.
Not just anywhere to the very best of the Permian - the Spraberry and Bone Spring specifically.
Look at how the rig count has taken off in the lowest cost play in the presence of $50 U.S. per barrel oil.
http://www.energyeconomist.com/a6257783p/exploration/detail/permian/Permian_Basin_Overview.html
Now tell me how U.S production is going to rise in the second half to meet the "lower for longer" mantra. Something very dramatic would need to happen before the end of September given the two month lag from rig count to production - not just the modest increases we have seen so far.
STO is now breaking even at $43 but that's really a lot of codswallop - it's slashing staff to the bone and not spending enough on exploration. For 2017 that number is likely to be $38 or less as they further gut the exploration spend.
I am not foolish enough to predict that the price of oil won't fall below that. It can be said with confidence though not for any length of time and the longer oil stays lower the more severe the reaction when the market comes to its senses.
This is of course nothing like the conventional narrative but if you follow the conventional narrative you are bound to the average results of the so called "investment professionals". If you want to do better you must think differently.
(20min delay)