EV market maturing is a huge risk. India and Africa as shown by mobile phones have been quite adept at not being at the leading edge and making incremental changes but instead jumping many generations of technology once it reached the price point and implementing it.
Examples - Africa - crap copper phone network. Missed first 8 generations of mass rollout of mobile phones and them implemented low cost later generation. Massive change to community, society and ecconomy and technology paid off very quickly. The solar and self generation in 2nd and 3rd world is also a case to look at where no mains cables are installed but local generation and small networks with wind , hydro and solar.
Car use. Very interesting as peoeple assume car ownership will be a requirement when I believe the reality is that it will be a service. Yes 2nd world countries will miss many generations of EV and EV infustructure and will enter market seriously with a car share , automated uber style service requiring 1/10 less cars that have a very high utilisation rate. That means demand on EV input commodoties won't be as great nor price at some point in the transition cycle along with recycling of existing making up % of commodity supply. So for urban areas why own a vehicle when with mobile phone technology you can justy book service you need and sharing journesy just like public transport ro getting to public transport hubs.
Electric bikes , scooters motorbikes will be massive due to convenience, longevity and cost fo rshort single / couple person journery.
Mass adoption can happen comparatively cheaply with scale manufacturing and massive changes in road design, maintainance etc.
Reality - heavy transport - charge time the killer as time is $ so until there is on road charging it will have a massive barrier as that infustructure is massive, With self driving and driving aides there will probably be changes to fatigue laws etc .
How fast will any transition be - faster than most tink except teh rabid greens and early adopters who think it will happen next week.
Good news is that new projects and greenfields probably will struggle to get fiannce and only if tehre is offtake and also govt sanction guarantee regarding carbon style offsett. That leave existing players with infustructure and cash flow at a advantage as add on project or expansion has alower price and risk implementation .
Massive risk as " ethics and green:" steer a path politically and in community that will be at odds with what industry actually required and can afford. Predicting times and attitudes let alone politics is near impossible when nuclear countries are making world rules as tehy ahve a source of energy that they say ois not a carbon polluter!!
OSH Price at posting:
$3.93 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
