Another great milestone delivered by the company.
Jewell paid out in 6 months
Rangers paid out in 7 months.
When Black Mesa were modelling the production profile in anticipation of drilling commencement they were working of assumptions in the ranges as per below.
View attachment 4867708and
View attachment 4867744BRK were preparing to drill the initial DSU wells expecting a payout period of ~20 months base case, and 17 months high case.
For Jewell the well came in at the high case in terms of productivity and the supportive commodity prices cut the payout period from 17 months to 6.
The Rangers paid out in 7 months as per today's announcement after producing 173,400 BOE . This shorter payout benefitted from a higher commodity price regime than Jewell which to a large extent compensated for the lower well performance which was without doubt good fortune for BRK and shareholders. BRK are quite sure after reviewing their well data, the Rangers was affected by the Sundance Kid which produced 213,000 BOE in 3.5 months!
View attachment 4867816The Wolf Pack well should be interference free from the Scissortail wells east in the adjacent DSU which haven't spudded yet ,(and are further away than the SD was from Rangers) so it will be interesting to see if it can out perform Rangers to any significant extent.
Flames is on track to exceed Rangers gas and NGL production but won't hit Jewell numbers IMO . The OK tax website isn't showing up oil production numbers for Flames yet, but we know from the Flames announcement the well is doing ~50% oil, 25% NGL and 25% shrunk gas.
Below are the initial monthly flow rates for Jewell, Rangers and Flames for comparison ( without Flames oil)
JEWELL
Oil =1 ( Thousand cubic feet)
Raw gas = 5 ( Barrels)
View attachment 4868020Gas build Aug-oct monthly production 1.2 MMCF, 39 MMCF, 87.9 MMCF, 104 MMCF
RANGERS
View attachment 4868047Gas Build March-July 0.13 MMCF, 15 MMCF, 47.6 MMCF, 47 MMCF
FLAMES
OK tax website reformatted ( worse now
)
View attachment 4868074Gas build July-Sept 20.1 MMCF, 54.5 MMCF, 74.4 MMCF.
We can see from the data:
Jewell peaked oil production in the 3rd month of oil production, gas and NGL production in the 5th month.
Rangers peaked oil in the second month of oil production, gas and NGL in the 4th month.
Flames gas and NGL still rising in the 3rd month and flowing gas between Jewell and Rangers.
My best estimates for oil is Flames is closer to Rangers than Jewell.
So whilst these numbers are interesting, the only really important numbers to watch will be the Wolf Pack, because this well is the only SWISH operated well BRK have chosen to drill for production purposes only. As we all now fully understand, the first 3 were drilled to get the DSU's HBP, and BRK would have been happy for them to payout in the original 20 months, ( but won the jackpot with decade high prices). We were hoping ( BRK management included) that Rangers would come close to emulating Sundance Kid, but with frack interference and drainage from that well, that was not to be.
Hopefully, with clean air, the Wolf Pack well will give a better result. The WP lateral will be 75% the length of the SK well, so on a comparative basis to match that well, we are looking for ~160,000 BOE in the first 3.5 months, which is just under what Rangers achieved in 7 months.
Shows you what an incredible well the SD is, and it will be very difficult to get close IMO in all honesty... but here is hoping.
Cheers
Dan
(20min delay)