For the graph I posted, considering a $100K investment in OPTOB...

For the graph I posted, considering a $100K investment in OPTOB at $0.12 with a 50% chance of success, we should expect a risk-adjusted value of $276K, or basically $176K of " expected profit," according to the Black-Scholes model.

That is BS, however, this outcome is unlikely in the real world. Its going to be zero or near zero (failure of P3 trail) or $400k plus , not much in-between. If the Phase 3 trial is successful and OPT rises to $1.50 per share, the $100K investment in OPTOB would be worth at most $416K based on the intrinsic value of the options. Nobody is going to pay 33% more for the options unless there is a very strong belief that OPT will continue rising above $1.50 until the final exercise date (30 June 2026).




Probably enough graphs now, as better to actually try to analyze the real-world medical data and actual chance of P2b being replicated in P3.